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Ewa Mazur

Decision Analyst

Ewa Mazur

darek.nowakowski@konsens-logika.pl

Game theory in auctionsStatistical analysis of competitor bidsMargin risk modelingTender behavior forecasting

Mathematics instead of a hunch

Ewa joined Konsens Logika in March 2019, bringing to the team 8 years of hard experience in data analysis for manufacturing firms. Her work begins where management's guesses end. In the Łódź office, she deals with breaking down the bids your rivals submitted over the last 18 months into prime factors. She's not interested in promises, just the patterns numbers leave behind in Excel sheets.

In our team, Ewa is responsible for creating decision trees for clients entering tenders worth from 140,000 PLN to 1.6 million PLN. We check 12 behavioral variants of your competition before you even open a text editor to write your offer. Ewa can calculate with 1.4% accuracy at what amount an opponent will give up further bidding, allowing our clients to keep their margin where others panic and drop prices unnecessarily.

Her approach is harsh and effective: numbers speak louder than a bluff. In the fourth quarter of 2023, she prepared a model for a local transport company that allowed them to win a contract for 11 regional routes. The difference between their offer and second place was just 420 PLN over the whole year. That wasn't luck, but the result of a statistical analysis performed a week earlier. Ewa doesn't believe in luck; she believes in well-calibrated input parameters.

Beyond spreadsheet analysis, Ewa ensures every client understands that mathematics has no emotions. If her calculations show that entering a given tender at current fuel and labor costs will bring a loss of 14,000 PLN per quarter, she will say it straight out during a meeting. Such an approach has already protected 9 small workshops and service companies from signing agreements that only appeared profitable. Sometimes the best move in game theory is not to take up the fight.

Work with Ewa usually occurs in a 4-day cycle. On Monday she analyzes your rival's history, on Wednesday you get a ready simulation of 3 scenarios, and on Thursday we jointly set the final amount that lands in the envelope. There is no room for fluff here – you get pure facts and a specific success probability expressed in percentages.