Competitor Behavior Modeling

We break down your rivals' strategy into prime factors

Most companies enter tenders hoping their price will be enough. We act differently. Mathematics has no emotions, so we analyze hard data from the last 11 auctions your biggest opponents participated in. We look at their profitability thresholds and the moments they usually withdraw from the fight. Since 2019, we have served 47 such projects in Łódź and across the region, delivering precise market behavior forecasts.

We check 12 behavioral variants during the bid

Every move on an electronic auction is a signal. Our team, led by Darek Nowakowski, scrutinizes these signals and assigns them specific numerical values. Numbers speak louder than a bluff, so if a competitor suddenly drops the price by 3% in the first minute, our model immediately suggests whether it's an intimidation attempt or real determination. In one of our recent assignments in October 2024, we accurately predicted a rival's withdrawal point to within 450 PLN.

Historical data as the foundation of your advantage

Your rival has already calculated their chances, but likely did so less accurately than we do. We use public databases and tender archives from the last 4 years. We analyze repeatable patterns in offers submitted by specific entities. We build a profile that accounts for their risk appetite when margins fall below 7.5%. This allows our clients to bid confidently, without unnecessarily burning budget where the rival wouldn't give up anyway.

Concrete numbers instead of guessing

Preparing a full behavior model usually takes us 3 to 5 business days. We don't write general opinions; we provide a 14-page report that shows in black and white at what amount it is worth stopping. In 2023, we helped 31 local businesses avoid losses resulting from contract underestimation. We focus on ensuring every step in the purchasing process is backed by a success probability calculation.

• Verification of history for 7 key rivals in your sector.
• Determination of critical margin points for electronic auctions.
• Simulation of 3 aggressive market entry scenarios.
• Identification of price patterns from the 2021-2024 period.

We might not be the cheapest analytical bureau in Łódź, but our models are based on pure logic, not hunches. If you need hard evidence on how your competition will behave next Tuesday, we will prepare a summary that closes the subject of guesswork. We send the first model drafts within 48 hours of receiving the tender documentation.

Book a 25-minute talk with Darek