Konsens Model – Mathematical advantage in tenders

Why does mathematics win over intuition?

Most companies enter tender bidding hoping for the best. They count on luck or on the rival cracking first under time pressure. At Konsens Logika, we reject such thinking because mathematics has no emotions. Our model focuses on cold analysis of market and historical data. Since 2017, we have served 47 projects where every fraction of a percent of margin counted. We show numbers that speak louder than an opponent's bluff, allowing you to avoid unnecessary price dropping.

12 behavioral variants of your competition

The Konsens Model is an analysis system based on advanced game theory. in every process, we check exactly 12 behavioral variants of other market participants. We analyze their start history from the last 3 years, their real processing capacities, and estimated fixed costs. Thanks to this, we know at what amount a specific competitor stops earning and starts acting under stress. This isn't guessing, just a precise calculation performed by our 6-person analytical team in our office at ul. Kilińskiego in Łódź. Your rival has already calculated their chances, so you must have hard arguments in the spreadsheet too.

Real profit confirmed in March 2024

During one of the projects implemented in March 2024, our client took part in an electronic auction for industrial component transport. Thanks to a precise mathematical model, we calculated that the main rival would withdraw at an amount 3.2% higher than the client's originally assumed minimum budget. This allowed winning the contract and retaining 8,400 PLN in operating margin that the client would normally have given away in the form of an unnecessary discount. We focus on facts, not empty promises, as seen in the results of our 83 regular clients.

What does work on a data model look like?

Preparing a full model for one tender usually takes 11 business days. We start by gathering market data and detailed verification of the order specifications. We aren't interested in generalities, only specific points of the auction rules. In the middle of this process, usually on the 6th business day, we deliver the first simulation of the three most probable bidding paths. This allows for quick correction of price strategy before the actual meeting or envelope opening occurs. This mode of work ensures peace of mind and eliminates errors made in haste.

Data security and information advantage

Darek Nowakowski personally supervises the verification of every model that leaves our studio. We understand that in tenders, confidentiality is basic, which is why we use our own calculation servers without access to public clouds. We focus on clients from the production and logistics industries, where numbers are most predictable. If you're looking for a way to squeeze more profit out of an auction, our calculations will give you an advantage the competition simply doesn't understand. Remember that in business, the one with better data wins, not the one who screams loudest at negotiations.